McKinsey recently came up with a great report on The economic potential of generative AI - The next productivity frontier (June 2023). (See report attached).
Omar Halabieh, Tech Director at Amazon Payment Services, wrote a great summary of it on LinkedIn. See below:
1. Approximately three-quarters of the potential benefits from using generative AI can be realized in four main sectors: customer service (customer and agent experiences), sales and marketing (personalization, content creation, and sales productivity), software development (coding assistant), and research and development (reducing research and design time, improving simulation and testing).
2. Banking, retail and consumer packaged goods, high tech, and life sciences (pharma/medical) are among the industries that could see the biggest impact as a percentage of their revenues from generative AI.
3. Generative AI has a more pronounced impact on knowledge-based occupations and more-educated workers, and is expected to automate tasks that currently consume between 60-70 percent of employees' time.
4. Between 2030 and 2060, it is estimated that half of today's work activities could be automated, a projection that is about a decade earlier than previous estimates. This will require substantial investment in reskilling workers and supporting them in transitioning to new roles or jobs. In some cases, workers will stay in the same occupations, but their mix of activities will shift; in others, workers will need to shift occupations.
5. The total net economic benefits of generative AI is expected to amount to $6.1-$7.9 trillion annually. Other traditional applications of AI continue to account for the majority of the overall potential value of AI. However, as generative AI continues to develop and mature, it has significant potential to open new frontiers and use cases - as highlighted in point 2.
6. Generative AI, technology performance is now expected to match median human performance and reach top-quartile human performance earlier than previously estimated across a wide range of capabilities (e.g. median human performance for natural-language understanding from '27 to '23). This is accelerating the midpoint scenario of 50 percent work automation from 2053 (in 2016) to 2045 - as highlighted in point 3.
Exciting times ahead!